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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."