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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.